Claudia Sheinbaum will carefully thread a needle to bear the MORENA torch while making her own mark. She is expected to find room within MORENA’s vision for the future of Mexico — not be set apart from it.
By Samuel Logan
Mexico’s constitution prevents presidents from being reelected for a second term. This is why political parties have a history of striving for continuity from one president to the next. The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) was in power for 71 years, while the rival National Action Party (PAN) only managed 12. Now it’s the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA)’s turn to start another six-year stretch with incoming president Claudia Sheinbaum. During this period, the party will focus on building the political and social infrastructure to ensure it rules for decades.
MORENA used to represent a political vision focused on achieving a peaceful, modern transformation of Mexican society and governance. It has undoubtedly evolved into a strong political party today, but the same vision remains. MORENA is no longer talking about simply establishing the vision it calls the Fourth Transformation. Instead, the party is focused on building the “second floor” (segundo piso) of the strategy after establishing its strong foundation, looking to push past anti-incumbent politics to sustain continuity over decades.
Fourth Transformation leaders have won an overwhelming victory over their political rivals, who were left tattered, disorganized, and considering switching political allegiances like many of the “grasshoppers” who joined MORENA before the elections. MORENA is now set to govern Mexico into the next decade, and possibly even more to come. AMLO’s vision for the next six-year presidential term (sexenio in Spanish) is set in stone. Sheinbaum should be seen as an instrumental leader against this backdrop, rather than a force set apart from it. She will transform the vision into a strategy, which her team will work to make real through tactical decision-making.
While Sheinbaum has her own vision and ideas for how she will lead Mexico toward 2030, she will not venture off the path that her predecessor and MORENA vision caster has set before her. The question is whether she will have room on this path to leave her own mark within the Fourth Transformation, not if she will be part of it.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) said goodbye to MORENA — on 23 September 2024 in front of some 3,000 party loyalists. It was a tearful despedida, full of symbolism and celebration. But nobody in the room had any doubt that his legacy and influence would remain at the helm of one of Latin America’s most powerful and influential political parties. You shouldn’t either.
Sheinbaum’s Cabinet: The Next Generation
AMLO’s former interior secretary Luisa María Alcalde is now MORENA’s president. She is impressive, aggressive, and young. Formerly the most powerful woman in Mexico, Alcalde is MORENA’s primary counterbalance to Sheinbaum. Expect her to be at the core of the next group of leaders molding the Fourth Transformation into reality, and to push back against anything that doesn’t look like what her political godfather would expect to see for the party. She is the primary force that will reign in and control the rabble-rousing and often contentious fault lines between various MORENA factions that squabble and fight like siblings.
At 37, Alcalde is well poised to bring her former boss’ vision into the future for a new generation of MORENA members. Her former position as interior secretary is considered Mexico’s second-most powerful political position within the executive branch. This chair exercises intergovernmental bureaucratic power, federal communication, and coalition-building, plus negotiations between federal and state governments. This is the hand that feeds — or starves — governors of public funds, wielding powerful influence over them and other federal entities under the executive branch.
MORENA governors control 24 of Mexico’s 32 states. Most — if not all — of these leaders already know Alcalde. As their new party president, she will exercise significant influence over the states as she brings together various coalitions and networks under one unified party. This will consolidate the MORENA political brand at local, state, and federal levels while ensuring that the governing team adheres to the vision and goals of the broader party elite.
Standing next to Alcalde as party secretary will be Andrés López Beltrán, AMLO’s second-oldest son. Known as Andy, he will support Alcalde to maintain the party’s unity across its various factions. This job will expose him to party leadership and give him influence as new blood enters the ranks to build relationships with various state and local political party bosses (caciques). While nobody doubts Andy’s loyalty, some analysts view his appointment as bad news for Sheinbaum. Together, Alcalde and Andy represent the future of MORENA — and a guarantee that AMLO’s vision will live beyond the man.
Sheinbaum’s Cabinet: Returning Faces
Unsurprisingly, many of AMLO’s former cabinet members will remain in Sheinbaum’s administration.
Perhaps the most pragmatic is the Treasury Secretary, Rogelio Ramírez de la O, who is expected to keep a steady hand on fiscal stability as the government transitions. The markets generally like him. He will play a crucial role in the forthcoming internal (and possibly public) debate over whether to continue funding the debt-ridden, state-owned petroleum company Pemex.
AMLO’s Economy Secretary Raquel Buenrostro will become Mexico’s public service secretary under Sheinbaum. Think of her as the government’s anti-corruption czar. Her job will be to audit accounts and finances, seek out fraud, and bring to heel overspending. In theory, she may be able to help cover up some of the questionable public contracts that she oversaw during the AMLO administration in this new role. Expect her to continue to wield some influence over her former office, where she was known for being tough on corporate taxes. Buenrostro is an experienced and well-respected MORENA technocrat. She is known to be closely aligned with Sheinbaum, who has defended her integrity.
Marcelo Ebrard, the new economy secretary, is a party heavyweight and used to be Sheinbaum’s principal political rival within MORENA. His position is a consolation prize. Politically, he is more aligned with the treasury secretary and more centrist than Sheinbaum and AMLO. The two rivals have buried the hatchet publicly, but private friction likely remains. Expect his office to hold firm against the Sheinbaum administration’s proposed economic policies. Any disagreements would likely be private to preserve the appearance of party unity.
Another well-respected political operator is Juan Ramon de la Fuente, Sheinbaum’s incoming foreign affairs secretary. He is expected to have minimal influence. Known for successfully administering one of Latin America’s most prestigious universities, the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), De la Fuente will largely focus on managing Mexico-US relations and tightening ties with China. MORENA is more focused on domestic affairs and does not consider international relations — apart from the essentials of diplomacy — to be of much interest or consequence to its national project. He will toe the line, and his position could be an early signal for whether or not Sheinbaum will use foreign policy as a safe and effective way to distinguish her administration from AMLO’s.
A more controversial topic is public security. Outgoing Security Secretary Rosa Icela Rodríguez will be the new interior secretary, replacing Alcalde. Rodríguez is expected to keep an eye on public security, leveraging her influence and relationships in this office to assist with a new — and hopefully more effective — public security policy. This should be one of Sheinbaum’s most important focus areas from day one. While Rodríguez’s term as Mexico’s chief public security officer was seen as successful within MORENA, public security has significantly declined over the past six years. Rodríguez will offer considerable support with this all-hands-on-deck requirement through her new role, and Sheinbaum will need her help. The incoming public security secretary is already under pressure and new to federal-level public security administration.
Omar García Harfuch is no stranger to violence. He survived an assassination attempt in 2020, likely planned by gunmen working for the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación. He is a Sheinbaum loyalist, having served under her as Mexico City’s sheriff during her mayoral term. However, there are some concerns about his past. He has struggled to outlive accusations surrounding his alleged involvement in the cover-up of the Ayotzinapa case in 2014. That year, 43 students disappeared in Guerrero while he was that state’s federal police coordinator. Others claim he received bribes from the Sinaloa Cartel. Still, he is widely considered the principal architect for the future of public security in Mexico, and will likely be the one MORENA blames if the situation does not improve.
Finally, Sheinbaum’s chief of staff is Mexican political royalty. Lázaro Cárdenas Batel is the grandson of Lázaro Cárdenas, Mexico’s former president known for creating the ejido land distribution system, nationalizing the petroleum industry, and being one of the youngest men to become a general in the Mexican Armed Forces at only 28. Cárdenas Batel’s father, Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas Solórzano, helped found the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) and is one of the strongest critics of neoliberal political ideology alive today in Mexico. Cárdenas Batel, also a PRD member, was a close advisor to AMLO. He will serve as Sheinbaum’s chief gatekeeper, agenda-setter, and cabinet coordinator. This former governor of Michoacán (2002-2008) has spent considerable time in Washington as an academic with the Woodrow Wilson Center and advisor for the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), a human rights advocacy organization.
If Sheinbaum were to move in the wrong direction, expect Cárdenas Batel to be one of the first people called when AMLO doesn’t like what he sees or hears.
Sheinbaum Must Carry the Torch
Let’s be clear: there will be no daylight between AMLO and Sheinbaum, or between Sheinbaum and MORENA. Those who expect an immediate break between Sheinbaum and AMLO are deceived.
Beginning on 1 October 2024, Sheinbaum and her team will inherit two AMLO legacies: deplorable public security and the blueprints for a secondary legislative platform to frame out newly minted judicial reforms. Other significant changes to the Mexican constitution also await. MORENA expects to push through an entire raft of reforms while it retains all but a supermajority in Congress. This is the heart of the vision for a segundo piso.
There are also significant decisions that must be made about the future of Mexico’s petroleum industry. Sheinbaum’s former academic colleague and economist Víctor Rodríguez Padilla will be instrumental in this debate as he takes the helm of Pemex as its next leader. Rodríguez will remain close with Sheinbaum and likely counterbalance many of the MORENA loyalists who expect the government to continue to throw good money after bad to continue financing the company, eschewing calls for international investment and private-sector development of Mexico’s energy assets.
The three years Sheinbaum and her team have to govern before the 2027 midterms is barely enough time to accomplish everything on their agenda from day one — never mind the myriad of unforeseen challenges, unintended consequences, and opportunities that will surface in Mexico as MORENA’s coalitions fight over political turf within the party.
Mexican voters will give Sheinbaum a report card in 2027, but there’s also a tripwire. AMLO has already signaled the possibility of a recall referendum that would be set during the midterm elections. This referendum is a silent but clear reminder: MORENA is more important than Sheinbaum.
The Fourth Transformation will continue with or without Sheinbaum. As for now, she is a loyal and effective torchbearer.
Opportunities to Leave Her Mark
AMLO is a politician of the people and for the people. He is a populist politician to his core. By contrast, Sheinbaum is the quintessential technocrat — more analytical and cerebral. She is a well-educated, upper-middle-class Mexican academic who has maintained a populist political streak since the beginning of her career. MORENA is where the two meet, but her facility for examining the details behind how policy is built and maintained is her comfort zone.
From this posture, she likely will carefully construct and implement science-focused policies under a renewed focus on a science ministry. She plans to invest nearly USD14 billion in renewable energy, according to her April 2024 policy announcement. Expect Sheinbaum to take a more business-friendly approach while balancing MORENA’s needs to keep growing public sector programs to support the people. It's a tall order.
Just like he never touched science or renewable energy, AMLO was not interested in foreign policy. Sheinbaum should be. Mexico is a regional foreign policy heavyweight and is expected to hold its own with North American neighbors in forthcoming trade talks. As a subregional economic powerhouse, Mexico could exercise considerable influence over Central American and Caribbean countries. The leverage Sheinbaum has over the future US president concerning immigration policy is not lost on anyone paying attention, but AMLO has barely touched it. Sheinbaum’s team should find mutually beneficial paths forward, especially where concessions — and program funding — from Washington may be leveraged into effective bilateral relationships and sustainable investment toward combating the root causes of migration from Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras.
Mexico’s nearshoring status for US manufacturing presents Sheinbaum with opportunities to be a leader in trade and adjacent negotiations with Asian nations, principally China. Like in immigration, there is a gatekeeper role to play. Mexico can have its own relationship with China, apart from whatever punitive policy Washington decides to push. Engaging Washington through a broader North American trade framework could improve Mexico’s position with China and others who want to use some of the busiest land border crossings as the backdoor into the world’s largest consumer market.
As a significant source of critical and traditional minerals, Mexico has an opportunity to take an international leadership position on the future of mining that embraces the importance of critical minerals in consumer goods. It also has a chance to put downward pressure on forced labor and other social malaise often associated with the mining industry, fairly or not. This is perhaps the first place where we will see Sheinbaum act — behind closed doors — in a more pragmatic way than her predecessor. AMLO was unfairly tough on foreign mining companies in Mexico. Expect Sheinbaum to be considerably more professional and pragmatic, although she cannot ignore the opportunities the mining sector presents for additional income.
Sheinbaum’s first opportunity to set a foreign policy agenda for Mexico will be at the November 2024 G20 Leaders’ Summit in Rio de Janeiro. She doesn’t have to go, and could simply send her foreign affairs secretary. But if she does, pay attention to who she meets with apart from what she says publicly. It could be canned MORENA, or it could be an opportunity for Sheinbaum to spread her wings a little.
Decades of Single-Party Rule
Like her predecessor AMLO, Sheinbaum has six years to make her mark. As the first female president of Mexico, she will follow through on her de facto shattering of the glass ceiling in Mexican federal politics. She must ensure that Mexican women will continue to have a place of leadership and influence in Mexican politics through the successful management of a government that has earned an unprecedented mandate from Mexican voters. Women in leadership is a MORENA staple.
Sheinbaum is chief among the MORENA loyalists who surround her. She is a tested and true believer in the Fourth Transformation, and has won out over others who thought they were next in line. But AMLO has set a clear path for Sheinbaum, and she will walk in that direction. The steps are her own to take, but don’t expect her to wander too far off that path.
Mexico is at a historical precipice. In October 2024, the nation will continue toward a political vision that many expect to last for the long term. When conservative, business-friendly Mexican politician Vicente Fox broke decades of single-party rule in 2000, his supporters stated that their political experiment and vision for Mexico would live for decades. It didn’t. After a brief return of the previous political vision under Enrique Peña Nieto, AMLO brought Mexico a new vision of one-party rule with the Fourth Transformation ideology that uniquely embraces all Mexicans. This time, the idea of MORENA lasting for many years is closer to the truth than many would be willing to admit.
Sheinbaum is now the guardian of that future — one that MORENA will not let her or anyone else jeopardize. She acknowledges her role in her party’s present and Mexico’s future, but will find space in the margin to make her mark.
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The title of the article is misleading clickbait, as it suggests that MORENA is guaranteed to stay in power for "decades," which is far from certain. The content does not substantiate this claim, and the headline misleads readers into expecting a guaranteed political outcome.