The Week Ahead: 23-29 September 2024
Welcome to Southern Pulse’s weekly newsletter, where we dive into the major events and headlines set to shake things up in Latin America this week. We’ll keep you updated on key topics we’re watching and events to keep an eye on. If you were forwarded this newsletter, you can subscribe here:
The Week Ahead
This upcoming week's agenda includes an Argentine governor's visit to Brazil for the Rio Oil & Gas Summit, Latin American presidents convening at the UN General Assembly in New York, and Vietnam’s president visiting Cuba.
Monday 23 September
🇦🇷 🇧🇷 The governor of Argentina’s Neuquén province, Rolando Figueroa, will visit Brazil to attend the Rio Oil & Gas summit in Rio de Janeiro. Figueroa hopes to bring back Brazilian oil giant Petrobras to Neuquén after its exit in 2022. He is complementing the federal government’s RIGI law (designed to attract foreign investment) with a provincial investment incentive dubbed “Invest in Neuquén.”
Tuesday 24 September
🇺🇳 Latin American presidents will gather in New York City to attend the UN General Assembly. With several pressing issues on the agenda, such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, will there be time for an agreement on Venezuela’s political crisis?
🇺🇳 🇨🇴 🇵🇸 Colombian President Gustavo Petro is expected to meet with Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas at the UN. Petro has heavily criticized Israel’s war with Hamas and hopes to project himself as a leading actor in world politics. However, this effort has been compromised by his recent failure to mediate Venezuela’s political crisis.
Wednesday 25 September
🇨🇺 🇻🇳 Vietnam’s President Tô Lâm will visit Cuba to meet with his counterpart Miguel Díaz-Canel. As the Caribbean island faces significant shortages of basic goods such as bread, water or electricity, will the Cuban government take some cues from Vietnam’s economic model?
Thursday 26 September
🇲🇽 Mexico’s central bank will make its latest interest rate announcement. It cut rates in August from 11% to 10.75%, despite end-of-year inflation expectations rising from 4% to 4.4%. According to Bloomberg, the central bank is expected to “mull its second-straight rate cut” and might shy away from cutting rates at this meeting. However, market uncertainty — prompted by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s recently passed judicial reform — might push the needle in the opposite direction.
Friday 27 September
🗺️ Latin America is getting ready to celebrate World Tourism Day, with countries and organizations across the region hosting events.
The tourism industry is showing signs of coming back strong, fueled by pent-up demand and improved air travel options. The UN's tourism organization (UNWTO) is optimistic, predicting that international tourism will fully recover by the end of 2024.
Weekend
Saturday 28 September
🇲🇽 Outgoing Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador will visit Sinaloa to inaugurate new irrigation channels at the Santa María dam. He will be visiting the state as it is becoming increasingly embattled by clashes between Sinaloa Cartel factions.
🇲🇽 Mexico will commemorate the 30th anniversary of the assassination of former Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) general secretary José Francisco Ruiz Massieu in 1994. Ruiz Massieu was shot in broad daylight in Mexico City, and the crime rocked national politics. The investigation implicated a host of influential figures, including then-president Carlos Salinas.
Sunday 29 September
🇸🇻 🇦🇷 Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele will visit Argentina’s President Javier Milei. Both have a warm relationship, and Milei has expressed admiration for Bukele’s security reforms. A meeting between Bukele and Argentina’s Security Minister Patricia Bullrich is also in the cards, TN reported. As both governments deepen relations, will Milei increasingly adopt Bukele’s security policies?
Keeping an Eye On
In this section, we highlight topics or people we will be monitoring during the week.
🇨🇺 🇻🇪 Cuban shortages, continental consequences?
Cubans have experienced a series of snowballing shortages in recent weeks, with fuel scarcity provoking electricity blackouts that have hindered water supplies from reaching hundreds of thousands of residents. These crises have led to shortages of essential foods, Reuters reported. One reason the government cannot confront these mounting issues is because its main ally, Venezuela, is immersed in a political and economic crisis of its own. Cuba is one of the most decisive actors in Venezuela’s political crisis, providing key security support to its South American ally. Troubled by shortages and domestic turmoil, could the Cuban government be willing to negotiate Western aid in exchange for concessions in Venezuela? As pressure mounts in Cuba, Venezuelans will be looking closely.
🇺🇳 🌎 Latin America at the UN General Assembly?
As world leaders gather in New York this week, Latin American presidents could be in the limelight. Some regional leaders have been vocal in condemning Israel’s war with Hamas, with Colombian President Gustavo Petro making a point to meet his Palestinian counterpart at the event. Petro could double down on this position during the general debate. If the conversation turns to the war between Ukraine and Russia, Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva might seek once again to broker a peace summit between both countries. We’ll be keeping an eye on how both leaders respond if Venezuela’s political crisis makes it onto the agenda, as both so far have failed to bring Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to the negotiating table. Tune into Argentine President Javier Milei’s first address to the UN, during a week that could have some unexpected Latin American protagonists.
Upcoming events across the region
The 2024 COA Symposium and 29th BRAVO Business Awards will gather more than 500 regional business leaders in Miami on 30 October 2024.
The 2024 United Nations Biodiversity Conference of the Parties (COP16) will be held in Cali, Colombia, from 21 October to 1 November 2024.
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