The Week Ahead: 7-13 October 2024
Welcome to Southern Pulse’s weekly newsletter, where we dive into the major events and headlines set to shake things up in Latin America this week. We’ll keep you updated on key topics we’re watching and events to keep an eye on. If you were forwarded this newsletter, you can subscribe here:
The Week Ahead
This week is marked by monthly inflation updates from Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico, as well as Mexico’s new President Claudia Sheinbaum unveiling the country’s security strategy.
🇧🇷 Weekend Catch-up
Make sure to catch up with the results of Brazil’s municipal elections on Sunday.
While São Paulo Mayor Ricardo Nunes led with the highest percentage of votes (about 29.5%) in the first round just ahead of Guilherme Boulos (29%), a 27 October runoff vote will declare the winner.
Monday 7 October
🇲🇽 Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will present her administration’s “national security strategy” this week. Security is one of the country’s most pressing issues, with about 74% of Mexicans reporting feeling unsafe, according to Statista research. We will be watching closely to see how her policy compares to that of former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Tuesday 8 October
Holidays: 🇵🇪 Peru commemorates the 1879 Battle of Angamos against Chile.
🇲🇽 In Mexico, pilots from the country’s leading airline Aeromexico will go on strike. Pilots are demanding higher wages to compensate for pay cuts during the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation. The strike was originally scheduled for 1 October, but it was postponed to avoid interference with President Claudia Sheinbaum’s inauguration on the same day.
🇨🇴 Colombia’s central bank will publish its latest annual and monthly inflation numbers. Last month, the bank reported a decrease in yearly inflation from 6.86% to 6.12%. The central bank responded last week by cutting interest rates from 10.75% to 10.25%. However, the bank is under pressure from the government to cut rates deeper and faster, while economists fear inflation will not slow down fast enough to allow for said cuts.
🇨🇱 Chile’s national statistics institute will present its monthly price figures. Chilean bank Coopeuch expects prices to decrease slightly, which signals that inflation is slowing in the country. Scotiabank forecasts that the central bank will reduce Chile’s interest rate by 0.25% during its next meeting if these predictions bear out.
Wednesday 9 October
🇧🇷 In Brazil, the national statistics institute will publish its latest update on yearly inflation figures. Inflation rose from 3.9% in May to 4.2% in August, leading the central bank to increase rates in September. These latest figures will show whether the central bank’s tightening is working.
🇲🇽 Mexico’s statistics institute will present its yearly and monthly price index. In September, the central bank cut rates from 10.75% to 10.5%, expecting inflation to continue slowing in the coming months. We’ll see whether Wednesday’s figures support this trend or prompt Banxico to rethink its strategy.
Thursday 10 October
Holidays: 🇨🇺 Cuba celebrates Independence Day.
🇦🇷 Argentina’s statistics institute will publish its monthly inflation figures. Monthly figures fell to 3.9% in August — a 31-month low. President Javier Milei has embarked on a fierce austerity program to reduce inflation and the country’s deficit. About 53% of the population now lives in poverty, the BBC reported, marking a significant increase since Milei took office.
Friday 11 October
Holiday: 🇪🇨 Ecuador celebrates Guayaquil gaining independence from Spain in 1820.
🇧🇷 Brasília, Brazil will host the G20’s “Women Empowerment Ministerial Meeting” which is set to cover issues including equality, combating gender violence, and ensuring women’s representation in discussions concerning climate justice. The organization has a working group dedicated to these subjects. Ministers are expected to sign a declaration outlining their countries’ actions and commitments towards advancing these goals.
🇵🇪 Peru’s central bank will announce its latest interest rate decision. Last month, the bank cut rates to the lowest level in Latin America, from 5.55% to 5.25%. With inflation recently falling below 2% annually, Yahoo Finance explained that a renewed interest cut is increasingly likely.
Weekend
Saturday 12 October
🌎 Latin American countries will commemorate the anniversary of Christopher Columbus arriving in the Americas in 1492. The day goes by several names depending on the country, including the “Day of Respect for Cultural Diversity” in Argentina and “Day of the Pluricultural Nation” in Mexico.
Sunday 13 October
Nothing pressing today. Why not read a deep dive into the dynamics behind Brazil’s municipal elections ahead of the São Paulo runoff later this month?
Keeping an Eye On
In this section, we highlight topics or people we will be monitoring during the week.
🇦🇷 Will Argentina’s growing poverty rate strengthen organized crime?
In the first six months of President Javier Milei’s administration, the official poverty rate has grown from 42% to 53% — the highest level in over two decades. Milei arrived in office with a radical austerity plan to reduce Argentina’s skyrocketing inflation and perennial budget deficit. However, some are beginning to question whether the remedy is worse than the illness, with Milei’s approval ratings falling sharply in recent months. In addition, the state’s presence is slowly receding from many areas of the country, as malnutrition and scurvy settle in. Widespread poverty and a weak state are key ingredients to foster the rise of organized crime at a time when the government is struggling to control surging violence rates in Rosario, Argentina’s third-largest city. We’ll be keeping an eye on any opportunistic criminal actors seeking to take advantage of Argentina’s crisis.
🌎 📈 Can turmoil in the Middle East fuel the return of inflation to Latin America?
The recent spiraling of military conflict in the Middle East prompted a rise in oil prices on 3 October. Rising oil prices usually act as an inflationary pressure, as the cost of fuel increases. To make matters worse, instability in the Middle East is prompting investors to turn towards safer financial assets — such as the US dollar — and away from riskier investments in emerging markets. The result? Latin American currencies have dipped against the dollar. A weaker local currency makes oil purchased in dollars even more expensive, reinforcing the inflationary dynamic. We’ll be keeping an eye on whether energy prices stabilize in the coming days, or if inflation creeps back into Latin America.
Upcoming Events Across the Region
The Brazilian Chamber of Commerce in Great Britain will host the “Brazil Biofuels Seminar: Overview of a Booming Market” on 18 October in London.
Canning House's Powering Potential conference will explore avenues for energy collaboration between the UK and Latin America. The event will be held in London on 22 October 2024.
The 2024 COA Symposium and 29th BRAVO Business Awards will gather more than 500 regional business leaders in Miami on 30 October 2024.
The 2024 United Nations Biodiversity Conference of the Parties (COP16) will be held in Cali, Colombia, from 21 October to 1 November 2024.
More than 1,000 executives, thought leaders and government representatives will meet at the APEC CEO Summit to discuss the region's biggest challenges. The event will be held in Lima, Peru, from 13-15 November.
Thanks for taking the time to read The Week Ahead. If there's something you think we overlooked, or you'd simply like to share your thoughts, we'd love to hear from you. Feel free to reach out at press@southernpulse.com.
CC BY-ND