The Week Ahead: 03-09 February 2025
Welcome to Southern Pulse’s weekly newsletter, where we dive into the major events and headlines set to shake things up in Latin America this week. We’ll keep you updated on key topics we’re watching and events to keep an eye on. If you were forwarded this newsletter, you can subscribe here:
The Week Ahead
This week will be marked by US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods. Protests are expected to make headlines in several countries, as well as key judicial processes in El Salvador and Panama. The region will also be watching Ecuador, which will hold presidential elections on Sunday.
Monday 3 February
Holidays: 🇲🇽 Mexico commemorates the anniversary of its 1917 Constitution entering into force. | 🇭🇳 Honduras celebrates Suyapa Virgin Day.
🇸🇻 In El Salvador, five anti-mining activists allegedly linked to a kidnapping in 1989 will be tried for a second time despite public outrage. The state’s Attorney General’s Office appealed their October 2024 acquittal. This led to a retrial of the individuals, who were accused of kidnapping and murdering a woman for allegedly collaborating with the military during the height of the country’s civil conflict. More than 20 civil organizations supporting the environmental leaders have spoken out against the retrial, La Prensa Gráfica reported.
🇨🇴 In Colombia, protesters will mobilize in Bogota until the government responds to crises in regions such as Catatumbo, where armed violence has exploded in recent weeks. The protests seek to secure government guarantees in security, access to land, and basic income. Signatories of the 2016 peace agreement referendum have called for mobilizations and intermittent blockades in Bogota on 3 and 4 February. They demand that the government establish a dialogue to address security guarantees, access to land, basic income, and compliance with the peace process.
🇧🇴 Transportation workers in the major city and economic hub of Santa Cruz, Bolivia plan to strike. Santa Cruz bus drivers will go on an indefinite strike starting on 3 February, Union leader Bismarck Daza said, which would coincide with the start of the school year. The strike aims to pressure the Santa Cruz City Hall to approve an increase in adult bus fares. Since mid-2024, bus drivers have demanded financial adjustments and criticized the municipal government’s reorganization measures.
Tuesday 4 February
🇺🇸 🇲🇽 🇨🇦 The US said it planned to implement a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods entering the country starting from this day. However, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced on the morning of 3 February that Mexico and the US had come to an agreement to pause the tariffs for a month. US President Donald Trump signed an executive order during the weekend to place 10% tariffs on Chinese imports and a reduced 10% tariff on Canadian oil. The announcement has rocked world markets and will likely spur a renegotiation of the USMCA free trade agreement that entered into force in July 2020. While Trump mentioned the agreement with Sheinbaum on social media networks, we’ll be looking out for any official statements about the tariffs in the coming days.
Wednesday 5 February
🇲🇽 Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum will preside over the National Conference of Governors (CONAGO). Governors from all 31 Mexican states and the capital will discuss issues including security and migration amid massive deportations under Trump.
Thursday 6 February
🇸🇻 Salvadoran municipal police officers will receive training from the US FBI’s Special Weapons and Tactics Unit (SWAT). Commissioner Julio César Salas announced that the department’s deputy directors will attend a training program specialized in fentanyl detection and gang control in Pueblo, Colorado.
🇵🇪 In Peru, representatives from transportation workers’ unions will gather to determine whether to call for nationwide strikes. Mototaxi and microbus drivers are calling for a mass assembly on 6 February to demand government action on security issues. The drivers are frustrated by the rising levels of extortion and the lack of security measures to protect them. If their demands are not met, they could call a nationwide strike on 26 February.
🇦🇷 Argentina’s Congress will discuss an important political reform that proposes eliminating the country’s “simultaneous and mandatory open primary” (PASO) elections for political parties. The reform would also modify the way political parties are financed to reduce public spending on all political activities.
Friday 7 February
🇵🇦 Panama’s government will conclude a public consultation on the results of an environmental audit of the Panama Cobre mine. The project, owned by First Quantum Minerals, faces a pivotal decision that will shape the future of the mine following its 2023 closure. The Environment Ministry invited environmental organizations, local communities, academic institutions, the private sector, and the general public to participate in the process. This initiative comes in response to President José Raúl Mulino's announcement in July 2024 that there would be a “comprehensive audit” of the USD10 billion mine. Experts estimate that the mine's closure could lead to economic losses of USD18 billion over the next decade. Meanwhile, First Quantum has initiated two arbitration cases seeking compensation from Panama.
Weekend
Saturday 8 February
💡 Nothing pressing today. Why not check out our latest Visual Pulse, which depicts the top short-term risks facing Latin America?
Sunday 9 February
🇪🇨 Ecuador will hold presidential elections. President Daniel Noboa, who seeks reelection, is polling ahead of his main contender, Luisa Gonzalez. She is running under the Citizen’s Revolution Movement party, backed by left-leaning ex-president Rafael Correa. However, Noboa’s popularity has been declining amid security and energy crises. Some polls have projected that Gonzalez would win the first round, backed by her party’s well-established structure. Her challenge lies in overcoming voter distrust toward her party, which lost the runoff elections in 2021. Sixteen candidates will compete to serve as the country’s next president until 2029. More than 13.7 million Ecuadorians have been called to vote for the president and all 137 members of the country’s unicameral National Assembly.
Keeping an Eye On
In this section, we highlight topics or people we will be monitoring during the week. This week’s edition will look specifically at the first few days of US-Latin American relations under US President Donald Trump, as well as trends to keep an eye on in the coming four years.
🎭 🌎 What lies beneath the theatrics of US-Latin American relations?
The first few days of US-Latin American relations under Trump’s presidency have been full of theatrics. Trump signed an executive decree to rename a vast expanse of water as the “Gulf of America.” Mexico’s president Claudia Sheinbaum retorted by proposing to rename the US as “Mexican America.” In the early hours of a recent spat between the Colombian and US governments over deportees, Colombian president Gustavo Petro was preparing to receive the flights with a bouquet of flowers. Amid all the symbolism, it is hard to distinguish the signal from the noise. We expect these rhetorical exchanges to increase as governments in Latin America make big pronouncements in the name of national sovereignty while acquiescing to Trump’s demands. To navigate the next four years of US-Latin American relations, keep a close eye on trade and foreign investment figures. Doing so will reveal several important indicators that risk becoming lost amid presidential grandstanding. For example, the US liquid natural gas sector –- the jewel of Trump’s energy plans — is inextricably tied to Mexico. Many Latin American countries, including Colombia, make most of their revenue by selling oil to the US — a commodity that China is increasingly disinterested in. Behind the rhetoric, these key structural relationships are worth monitoring in the long term.
🦅 Could anti-imperialism return to Latin American politics?
It has been almost two decades since Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez compared a US president with the devil at the United Nations. Since then, anti-imperialism has considerably declined in Latin American politics. A greater percentage of Colombians and Mexicans have a favorable view of the US than the British, for example. These days it’s exceedingly rare for a Latin American head of state — save for the ossified dictatorships of Venezuela, Cuba or Nicaragua — to raise the specter of US imperialism. Chile’s young socialist President Gabriel Boric largely eschewed such rhetoric, signaling that it doesn’t hold as much weight among new generations as it did with the old (see Colombia’s Gustavo Petro). That, however, could change during Trump’s second term. As he conducts a forceful and expansionary foreign policy in the hemisphere, acquiescence from Latin American leaders could breed resentment among voters. Any abuses by the US government could awaken the dormant but powerful political idea of anti-imperialism. If international media outlets are comparing Trump’s presidency to the start of William McKinley’s in 1897 — a year associated with the country beginning a new imperialistic era — we should remind readers that José Martí’s 1891 essay “Nuestra América” sounded a passionate call for Latin American solidarity against these policies only a few years earlier.
Upcoming Events
On 11 February, the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI) will host FinSec25 in London. This event aims to bring together stakeholders to tackle the fast-changing landscape where finance meets security. Attendees will include policymakers, law enforcement, and private sector leaders focused on addressing the rise in financial crime and creating cohesive strategies that link economic crime and illicit finance to overall security efforts.
On 18 February, the Council of the Americas will host the South-Southeast Mexico Investment Forum in Veracruz, Mexico. This event will bring together government officials alongside private sector players, offering a unique chance for business leaders to engage with top policymakers.
The American Chamber of Commerce of Peru will organize a workshop from 18-19 February on modifications to customs legislation and the impact of the recently inaugurated Chancay megaport.
Thanks for taking the time to read The Week Ahead. If there's something you think we overlooked, or you'd simply like to share your thoughts, we'd love to hear from you. Feel free to reach out at press@southernpulse.com.
(This post was updated to reflect new developments on an agreement between the US and Mexico to postpone tariffs.)
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