The Week Ahead: 07-13 April 2025
Welcome to Southern Pulse’s weekly newsletter, where we dive into the major events and headlines set to shake things up in Latin America this week. We’ll keep you updated on key topics we’re watching and events to keep an eye on. If you were forwarded this newsletter, you can subscribe here:
The Week Ahead
This week’s major events include the second round of presidential elections in Ecuador, the summit of foreign ministers from Mercosur countries in Argentina, and the CELAC Summit in Tegucigalpa where Honduran President Xiomara Castro will hand over the pro-tempore presidency to Colombia’s Gustavo Petro. The US Defense Secretary will also travel to Panama to discuss Canal security and migration with his Panamanian counterpart José Raúl Mulino.
Research for this newsletter was supported by Nelson, our AI-powered Latin American research companion. If you'd like to know more about Nelson, click here. In Chile this week? Join us at the 8th Latin America Energy Summit for a live demonstration of Nelson.
Monday 7 April
🇺🇾 🇵🇦 🇭🇳 Uruguayan President Yamandú Orsi will visit Panama and Honduras in his first official trip abroad. On 7 April, Orsi will meet his Panamanian counterpart José Raúl Mulino and representatives from the private sector, particularly, rice producers. He will then travel to Honduras on 8 and 9 April to attend the IX Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) Summit. Foreign Minister Mario Lubetkin said Orsi will have bilateral meetings with various presidents including Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, Honduras’ Xiomara Castro, and Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum.
🇺🇸 🇵🇦 US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will visit Panama to discuss security of the Canal and migration. Following a telephone call with Hegseth, Panamanian Security Minister Frank Abrego confirmed that Hegseth's visit will include meetings with him and President Raúl Mulino on security and irregular migration. News outlet La Prensa reported that the security of the Panama Canal is on Hegseth’s agenda, as the administration of US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to retake control of the inter-oceanic canal due to alleged Chinese influence.
Tuesday 8 April
🇭🇳 The Honduran National Electoral Council (CNE) will announce the results of party primaries held for the November presidential election. The primaries took place on 9 March 2025 and the three largest political parties participated: the Liberal Party, the National Party, and Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE). The results come at an uncertain time due to irregularities reported on the day when primaries were held, including the late arrival of electoral material in Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula.
🇺🇸 🇻🇪 🇸🇻 The US Supreme Court will analyze extending a court order that blocks deportations of primarily Venezuelan migrants from the US. District Judge James Boasberg set 8 April as the date for a hearing on a possible long-lasting injunction that would prevent the Trump’s administration from deporting hundreds of irregular migrants to El Salvador and Venezuela. The hearing comes after Judge Boasberg extended the deadline for a temporary injunction – from 15 March to 12 April. The US expelled over 200 Venezuelans allegedly linked to the Tren de Aragua criminal group to El Salvador on 16 March.
🇵🇪 The Peruvian capital Lima will host Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) Americas, the region’s largest event on PPPs. PPPs are associations between private and governmental entities that enable the improvement of public services via financing, project management or execution. Some examples include telecommunications, water, and energy works. The event is organized by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the Peruvian Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), and Peru’s economic promotion agency “ProInversión”. It will take place from 8 to 10 April and it will gather over 600 government leaders, investors and experts from 25 different countries in Latin America, Europe, and Asia.
🇧🇷 Brazil’s Supreme Court will begin the trial of 12 individuals accused of allegedly planning the assassination of President Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ Da Silva in 2022. The 12 individuals accused include 11 military personnel and one police officer, who allegedly conspired to murder President Lula da Silva, Vice-President Gerald Alckmin, and Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes, after the October 2022 general election results.
Wednesday 9 April
🇨🇴 🌎 Colombia will receive the pro-tempore presidency of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) from Honduras. Honduran President Xiomara Castro will hand over the one-year presidency of the intergovernmental organization to Colombia’s Gustavo Petro in Tegucigalpa. CELAC is an international group that seeks to promote regional integration. President Petro is expected to use his term as a platform to advance his government’s foreign policy goals. The Colombian Foreign Ministry said Colombia will promote “strategic relations” with the European Union, China, and the African Union.
Thursday 10 April
🇦🇷 Argentina’s largest workers confederation will hold a nationwide strike against the austerity measures of President Javier Milei. The General Confederation of Labor (CGT), whose affiliated workers are estimated at 3 million, announced it will hold a strike from 9 to 10 April protesting Milei’s economic measures that seek to slash government spending. The nationwide strike includes workers affiliated to 40 different unions and is expected to affect millions as it will primarily paralyze public transportation. This will be the third CGT strike against Milei's policies, with the first in January 2024 and the second in May of the same year.
Friday 11 April
Holidays: 🇨🇷 Costa Rica observes Juan Santamaria Day, in honor of the Costa Rican soldier and national hero for his actions in the Battle of Rivas against Nicaragua in 1856.
🌎 The Foreign Ministers of Mercosur countries will gather in Argentina. The Argentine government, which has the pro-tempore presidency of the South American economic bloc, called for the meeting. Its president, Javier Milei, is pushing for a change that would enable Mercosur countries to forge bilateral agreements without the mandatory endorsement of other members. The meeting is set against a backdrop of Milei’s threats to exit Mercosur in order to secure a free trade agreement with the US.
Weekend
Saturday 12 April
💡 Nothing pressing for today. Did you know we will be hosting a live Nelson webinar both in English and Spanish for those seeking to learn more about our new research assistant Nelson?
You can sign up in here for our English language webinar.
Si quiere anotarse para el ciberseminario en español, haga clic aquí.
Sunday 13 April
🇪🇨 Ecuador will hold presidential elections. Over 13.7 million Ecuadorians will be called to the polls to elect their president, in a second round of elections, for the period 2025-2029. The candidates are incumbent president Daniel Noboa, from the National Democratic Action (ADN), and Luisa González, from the left-leaning Citizen Revolution Movement (MRC).
Keeping an Eye On
In this section, we highlight topics or people we will be monitoring during the week.
🇪🇨 Is the alliance between Ecuador's opposition candidate and indigenous party Pachakutik sustainable?
After the first round of the Ecuadorian presidential election ended in a tie, all eyes focused on Pachakutik, the indigenous party with around 5% of votes which became kingmaker overnight. On 30 March, Pachakutik endorsed opposition candidate Luisa González, from the Revolución Ciudadana (RC) party, and a protégé of former president Rafael Correa (2007-2017). Pachakutik and Correísmo (as Correa’s movement, now embodied in RC, is known) have a fraught history. Over the past two decades they have fluctuated from close allies to bitter rivals. As a result, both parties have negotiated a comprehensive agreement binding them together. Desperate for Pachakutik’s votes, González might have promised more than she can deliver. The agreement calls, among other things, for lower taxes and increased spending, which the Ecuadorian state can hardly afford. The price for betraying Pachakutik is well-known to correístas: the last time both parties fell out, indigenous organizations staged widespread protests that brought the country to a standstill. As both parties embark on a new relationship, we’ll be keeping an eye on whether their fraught alliance is destined to collapse – with severe consequences to the country’s stability – or whether new leaders will be able to navigate old rivalries.
🇦🇷 Has Milei's Supreme Court gambit exposed the limits of his “chainsaw” politics?
On April 4, 2025, the Senate formally rejected President Milei's attempt to appoint two Supreme Court justices through executive decree. The Senate's rejection of nominees Ariel Lijo and Manuel García-Mansilla, supported by both opposition and traditional allies like PRO and UCR, demonstrates the structural limitations facing a government that holds just 7 of 72 Senate seats. This development, coupled with declining approval ratings from 50% in February to 37% in March 2025, reveals a crucial pattern: while Milei maintains capacity to implement economic reforms through executive action, institutional changes requiring legislative approval face substantial obstacles. We will be keeping an eye on whether this legislative pushback forces Milei to moderate his confrontational approach, or if it drives him to pursue even more aggressive use of executive powers.
Upcoming Events
The 8th Latin America Energy Summit, organized by Industry Exchange, will be taking place in Santiago, Chile on 9-10 April. This in-person event aims to analyze the opportunities within the rapidly evolving energy sector in Latin America. Southern Pulse will be on-site to introduce our new AI research assistant, Nelson. If you’re attending, we’d love to hear from you at nelson@southernpulse.com.
The US Chamber of Commerce is set to host its Critical Mineral Summit in Washington DC on 9 April. This event will bring together experts from both government and industry to address key challenges and advancements within the critical mineral value chain. Registration is required for those wishing to attend.
Canning House will hold its first Mexico-UK Summit in Mexico City on 9 April. In light of new government changes and evolving trade agreements, this event will serve as a venue for meaningful and informative discussions regarding the two countries. The event is free, but participants must register to attend.
On 10 April, the Latin American and Caribbean Center at Florida International University (FIU) will explore the trend of Cuban doctors being dispatched abroad to generate funds for the regime. Two specialists will dive into the specifics and consequences of the expanding Cuban medical presence in Mexico. The event will be held in Spanish.
The Center for Strategic & International Studies' Project on Prosperity and Development is set to host the ninth annual Global Development Forum (GDF) on 23 April. This forum will gather experts and key players to explore future opportunities and necessary steps for US engagement with developing and emerging market countries worldwide.
Thanks for taking the time to read The Week Ahead. If there's something you think we overlooked, or you'd simply like to share your thoughts, we'd love to hear from you. Feel free to reach out at press@southernpulse.com.
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