The Week Ahead: 24-30 March 2025
Welcome to Southern Pulse’s weekly newsletter, where we dive into the major events and headlines set to shake things up in Latin America this week. We’ll keep you updated on key topics we’re watching and events to keep an eye on. If you were forwarded this newsletter, you can subscribe here:
The Week Ahead
This week, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights will begin hearings on cases against Brazil, Honduras, Mexico, and Argentina. Chile’s Gabriel Boric will visit India, while Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will visit Japan and Vietnam with the aim of expanding commercial opportunities. Meanwhile, massive protests are expected in Paraguay and Argentina.
Research for this newsletter was supported by Nelson, our AI-powered Latin American research companion. If you'd like to know more about Nelson, click here.
Monday 24 March
Holidays: 🇦🇷 Argentina observes the National Day of Memory for Truth and Justice, which commemorates the victims of the injustices that occurred during the last military dictatorship (1976-1983). | 🇨🇴 Colombia observes Saint Joseph’s Day.
🌎 The Inter-American Court of Human Rights will begin several public hearings about alleged government involvement in human rights abuses. It will hear cases against Brazil, Honduras, Mexico, and Argentina.
🇪🇨 In Ecuador, candidates will start campaigning again ahead of the second round of presidential elections on 13 April. President Daniel Noboa, who will run under the National Democratic Action alliance, is known for having an “iron fist” against organized crime. Luisa González will run against him under the Citizen Revolution Movement party, a political platform backed by former president Rafael Correa. She became the first woman to advance to a second round of elections in the country.
🇦🇷 The General Confederation of Labor (CGT) will protest against President Javier Milei’s deregulation reforms by joining the annual “Day of Memory” remembrance march commemorating the 1976 coup. The CGT will protest against Milei’s reforms, which seek to prioritize private investment in various public institutions. The confederation says the measures jeopardize workers’ wages and pensions. There are also fears that Milei’s new International Monetary Fund (IMF) financial agreement could lead to further cuts.
🇧🇷 🇯🇵 🇻🇳 Brazilian President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva will conduct an official visit to Japan and Vietnam. The president will visit Tokyo from 24 to 27 March and Hanoi from 27 to 29 March. The visit seeks to expand markets for Brazilian exports and strengthen political relations with both countries, as well as explore Japan’s potential appetite for a trade deal with the Mercosur bloc. There is also interest in initiating a dialogue for a possible trade agreement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which includes Myanmar, Brunei, Cambodia, The Philippines, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Tuesday 25 March
🇧🇷 The Brazilian Federal Supreme Court (STF) will analyze a complaint against Jair Bolsonaro for allegedly attempting a coup after Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated him in the 2022 elections. The former president rejects the accusations. If the Supreme Court accepts the complaint, Bolsonaro would become the first former president to be tried for a coup attempt in Brazil, which could have broad political repercussions.
🇵🇦 Panama City will host Expocomer, one of the largest multi-sector international trade fairs in Central America and the Caribbean. The event, organized by Panama’s commerce chamber (CCIAP), will feature business representatives from various sectors, including food, beverages, agriculture, textiles, technology, and electronics. The fair’s four largest pavilions are Turkey, China, Brazil, and the US.
🇵🇾 In Paraguay, more than 35 social organizations will march in front of the National Congress as part of three days of protests against President Santiago Peña’s administration. Critics of Peña’s government allege that the government has violated labor laws, engaged in nepotism and abandoned the health system. Opposition parties will also march against alleged corruption and members of indigenous communities will voice demands for agrarian reform and other issues.
Wednesday 26 March
🇨🇱 The Chilean capital of Santiago will host the annual Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) board member assemblies. From 26 to 30 March, Chile will host the annual assembly of IDB’s board members as well as the Inter-American Investment Corporation (IDB Invest)’s board member assembly. The multilateral assemblies will bring together about 5,000 representatives from the IDB’s 48 member countries, and seek to find solutions to boost economic growth and tourism activity in the region.
Thursday 27 March
🇨🇱 Chilean President Gabriel Boric will testify in a case to determine whether he was involved in alleged tax fraud. The case centers on the government’s attempts to purchase the house of former socialist president Salvador Allende to turn it into a museum.
🇦🇷 In Buenos Aires, Argentina, unionized state workers will protest against government reforms seeking to reduce the weight of the state and favor private investment in public services. The Association of State Workers (ATE Capital) said that the protests seek to pressure the government to stop the “dismantling of public institutions.” The announcement comes after the government used tear gas and rubber bullets against protesters on 12 March 2025, yielding criticism from civil and human rights groups.
Friday 28 March
🇨🇴 President Gustavo Petro will sign the Nariño Pact, an agreement seeking to promote economic development in western Colombia. President Petro will visit Nariño, a department in western Colombia bordering Ecuador, to sign an agreement with local authorities pledging to develop 48 strategic projects. The projects have been stalled due to budget constraints.
Weekend
Saturday 29 March
🖥️ Nothing pressing for today. Have you seen our newly redesigned Nelson website, which is aimed at providing a smoother and more intuitive experience for users? If you haven't, make sure to check it out!
(And remember, if you’d like a live demo on how Nelson works and what it can do for your business, make sure to reach out to us at nelson@southernpulse.com.)
Sunday 30 March
Holidays: 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago celebrates Spiritual Baptist Liberation Day, which commemorates the 1951 repeal of a law that had prohibited the activities of the Spiritual Baptist faith.
🇨🇱 🇮🇳 Chilean President Gabriel Boric will conduct an official visit to India to “strengthen economic ties” between 30 March to 6 April. He will visit cities including New Delhi, Mumbai, and Bangalore. Boric, whose government is seeking a trade deal with India, is expected to participate in various business-related activities with a delegation of government officials and business representatives from various sectors.
Keeping an Eye On
In this section, we highlight topics or people we will be monitoring during the week.
🇪🇨 Can Ecuador transnationalize the fight against organized crime?
In recent weeks, Ecuadorian president Daniel Noboa has repeatedly requested that several countries construct foreign military bases in his country to help combat organized crime. In a conversation with the BBC, Noboa requested military support from the US, the EU and Brazil. There is some appeal to Noboa’s idea: The US or the EU are usually the main retail markets for illicit drugs, creating the demand that wreaks havoc in producing or transit countries like Ecuador. Consumer countries tend to outsource enforcement to countries upstream in the drug supply. Therefore, asking “consumers” to become involved in the fight against drug trafficking only seems fair. However, there are drawbacks. While popular with voters, militarized approaches to drug trafficking have poor track records. For example, Mexican president Felipe Calderón’s (2006-2012) costly “War on Drugs” led to tens of thousands of deaths and had little to show for it. Even worse, history is littered with elite military training programs set to tackle organized crime that have ended in soldiers being recruited by the very organizations they set out to fight. Far from combating criminals, some of these programs have provided elite recruits and weapons to cartels in the past. As Noboa struggles with these issues, we’ll be keeping an eye on whether he is successful in transnationalizing enforcement for a phenomenon that has already spread across borders.
🇨🇴 What could be the consequences of Colombia’s potential blacklisting by the US?
As part of the recent deterioration of relations between the Colombian and US governments, the latter threatened to “decertify” Colombia in the fight against drug trafficking. This means that the US would classify Colombia as a country that is “not cooperating,” which could render it illegible for military support or general aid. Venezuela and Bolivia are the only decertified countries in Latin America. The threat has logically spooked many in Colombia. The country is already dealing with the abrupt closure of USAID, which provided an estimated USD440 million yearly in humanitarian aid to Colombia’s peace process and other initiatives. As a historically large recipient of military aid from the US through the early-2000s Plan Colombia initiative, Colombia’s armed forces could see significant impacts from decertification. A weaker Colombian state — both militarily and in its capacity to provide services in remote regions — could have dramatic consequences for Latin America. If criminal groups gain greater leeway to operate, cocaine production could increase, bringing about a potential fall in retail prices. Lower prices could lead groups to make up for the lost revenues by expanding their market share at the expense of competitors. In the criminal underworld, this is often a very violent process, as groups fight over territory and physically displace rivals. We’ll be keeping an eye on whether the US carries through its decertification threats, and the impact this may have on the region’s stability.
Upcoming Events
Today, the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean (CAF) will introduce its Strategic Framework for Security and Justice for Development. The event will be streamed via the CAF's website, and guests must register in advance.
On 25 March, the American Chamber of Commerce in Mexico is set to commemorate 108 years of operation in the country with an event in Mexico City. The agenda will cover various topics, including trade, migration, and security.
Also on 25 March, the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics will be hosting a panel discussion on USAID and the Future of Foreign Aid. The event will be livestreamed on YouTube.
An online Wilson Center event on 25 March seeks to analyze security threats at global, regional, and local levels, with a particular emphasis on drug trafficking in Latin America. The discussion will address the evolving landscape of drug trafficking in the region and include former US Ambassador William Brownfield and former Colombian President Iván Duque.
Editor’s Note: This article was updated to correct the date of recent protests in Argentina and provide a newer link to that information.
Thanks for taking the time to read The Week Ahead. If there's something you think we overlooked, or you'd simply like to share your thoughts, we'd love to hear from you. Feel free to reach out at press@southernpulse.com.
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