The Week Ahead: 28 April-04 May 2025
Welcome to Southern Pulse’s weekly newsletter, where we dive into the major events and headlines set to shake things up in Latin America this week. We’ll keep you updated on key topics we’re watching and events to keep an eye on. If you were forwarded this newsletter, you can subscribe here:
The Week Ahead
This week's major events include protests across the region in celebration of International Workers’ Day. Additionally, the ruling MAS party in Bolivia is expected to announce its presidential candidate for the upcoming election.
Research for this newsletter was supported by Nelson, our AI-powered research companion. If you'd like to know more about Nelson, click here.
Monday 28 April
Holidays: 🇧🇧 Barbados observes National Heroes Day.
🇲🇽 Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will issue decrees incentivizing the domestic production of medicines and medical equipment. Although she has not provided specifics, the action is one of 18 measures announced to accelerate “Plan Mexico” amid US President Trump’s tariffs on Mexican products. The plan seeks to substitute imports by strengthening the production of domestic goods.
🇦🇷 🇺🇸 Adm. Alvin Hosley, who leads US Southern Command, is set for a three-day official visit to Argentina. During his trip, he’ll meet with Defense Minister Luis Petri and explore a naval base near Ushuaia in southern Argentina to gain insights into military activities in the Patagonia region. The purpose of his visit is to enhance regional security and learn about the protection of key shipping lanes. This visit follows closely on the heels of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's recent trip to Buenos Aires, where he met with President Milei to express support for the government's “bold economic reforms.”
Tuesday 29 April
🇩🇴 🌎 The Dominican Republic’s Senate will host a Central American Parliament (PARLACEN) high-level meeting on the challenges of irregular migration. The event seeks to bring together migration policy experts and deputies from Central American countries and the Dominican Republic to share best practices on managing irregular migration. It will be attended by representatives of Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras, Panama, El Salvador, and the Dominican Republic.
Wednesday 30 April
🇨🇺 🇨🇳 Cuba will hold its annual International Tourism Fair featuring China as the country's guest of honor. While the event will bring together experts to analyze trends and promote Cuba as a tourist destination, the key element of the fair will be the meeting of the ministers from the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA). The union includes Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, the Federation of St. Christopher and Nevis, and Saint Lucia.
🇦🇷 In Argentina, unionized workers will protest against President Javier Milei’s austerity measures. The Argentine General Confederation of Labor (CGT) called for a march on 30 April. The mobilization follows the general strike that took place on 10 April and seeks to continue the pressure on Milei's government. The mobilization is also linked to collective bargaining negotiations, where unions have indicated that salary offers are failing to keep pace with inflation.
Thursday 1 May
Holidays: 🌎 Various countries in the region observe International Workers’ Day.
🇸🇻 A Salvadorian labor organization will hold a protest against President Bukele’s administration. The Movement for the Defense of Working Class Rights (MDCT) will protest against the government’s decisions to dismiss public employees, support mining activities, and evict people from San Salvador’s historic center.
🇻🇪 In Venezuela, the government has called for a nationwide rally. President Nicolás Maduro called for the “working class” and “the armed people” to rally for peace as part of the celebration of International Workers’ Day. Maduro specifically called on the paramilitary Bolivarian National Militia to join the march. The government will likely seek to display its mobilizing power ahead of regional and legislative elections on 25 May.
Friday 2 May
🇦🇷 🇧🇷 🌎 The foreign ministers of Mercosur countries will meet in Buenos Aires to evaluate exempting tax on goods exported to the US. The foreign ministers of Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Bolivia, and Paraguay will gather to evaluate the decision to eliminate the Common External Tariff (CET) to 50 more exports to the US market following President Trump’s tariffs imposition on almost all countries. The ministers had approved a list of 50 goods that would be exempt from CET in April.
Weekend
Saturday 3 May
🇺🇸 🇲🇽 President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on worldwide autoparts imports may enter into force, primarily affecting Mexico. President Trump’s 25% tariffs on completed automobiles — as announced on 26 March — entered into force on 3 April. However, President Trump announced an additional 25% on certain vehicle parts, expected to enter into force on 3 May. According to Infobae, completed automobiles represent 39.33% of Mexican exports to the US and 32.65% of its total exports, with the new tariff on autoparts, the Mexican economy will be further pressured. As with previous tariff announcements, it is unclear whether they will take place as scheduled.
🇧🇴 In Bolivia, the ruling Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party will hold a rally to announce its presidential and vice-presidential candidates. The MAS party will call its 2.5 million members and supporters to gather in the city of El Alto, where the two candidates will be announced. President Luis Arce, who is part of the MAS party, is expected to win the nomination for the August general election.
Sunday 4 May
💡 Nothing pressing for today. Have you seen our recently published infographic about our new AI-powered research companion, Nelson? If you want to try Nelson out for you or your team, visit our website for a free trial or contact us for a private demo: https://www.southernpulse.com/nelson.
Keeping an Eye On
In this section, we highlight topics or people we will be monitoring during the week.
🌎 🇺🇸 Could the first US terrorism case against an alleged Tren de Aragua member impact companies in Latin America?
When the US government designated a number of Latin American criminal groups as “foreign terrorist organizations” (FTOs) in February 2025, there was much uncertainty surrounding how this new designation would be enforced. We may begin to see some clarity in the coming weeks, as a US court hears the first case of an individual accused of providing “material support” to an FTO. José Enrique Martínez Flores – a Venezuelan citizen – has been accused in a South Texas court of being a member of the Venezuelan criminal group ‘Tren de Aragua’ (TdA), and charged with two counts of material support to an FTO, as well as charges related to drug trafficking. If convicted, Martínez could face up to life imprisonment and a USD10 million fine. Businesses operating in Latin America should pay close attention: this case could begin to delineate how US courts interpret the concept of “material support”, in a way that could reshape the legal understanding of extortion. Before the FTO designation, companies or individuals could claim to be a victim of extortion – and therefore classify payments to a criminal group as involuntary and extracted under duress. The designation changes this. Now, payments to FTOs cannot be claimed as extortion, but rather become ‘material support’. The main precedent is the Chiquita case, where the banana company was accused of financing several FTO-designated groups in Colombia. Chiquita argued that they were being extorted and had no choice but to pay. The judge decreed that they did have a choice: they could have left the country entirely, but chose not to. Therefore, their payments constituted a form of material support, and Chiquita ended up paying over USD63 million in fines from several lawsuits. Will Martínez’s case set a new precedent? We’ll be keeping a close eye.
🇻🇪 Does the Venezuelan regime have the upcoming elections ‘under control’?
The Venezuelan regime is heading towards a stormy month of May: on the 27th, US oil company Chevron is scheduled to leave the country, following a total ban by the US government on oil operations in the country. This is expected to affect European companies like Repsol or ENI as well. To make matters worse, even if there was a company around to extract the oil, demand from China – one of the world’s largest consumers – is falling. To add political instability to the economic picture, Venezuela will hold legislative and regional elections on 25 May. While few expect the opposition to win, elections introduce a moment of political uncertainty. A humiliatingly low turnout compounded with economic gloom could provoke bitter infighting among the ruling coalition. The opposition remains divided, but a last-minute deal between parties could provide a shot in the arm to their movement. We’ll be keeping a close eye on how the regime navigates a potentially difficult month.
Upcoming Events
The British Argentine Chamber of Commerce alongside the Spanish Chamber of Commerce will be putting together the second edition of the Seminar on Business Synergies involving Argentina, Spain, and the UK. Set for the 29-30 April, this event will highlight the growing economic ties between these three countries. If you want to attend in-person at the Spanish Ambassador’s Residence in London, make sure to register beforehand.
Argentina's Minister of Deregulation and State Transformation, Federico Sturzenegger, is set to speak on 30 April about President Milei's actions to cut costs and improve government efficiency. The event is organized by the John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum at Harvard University and will be streamed live on their YouTube channel.
The Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) is hosting a webinar where experts will analyze what the latest US government actions — particularly regarding sanctions and tariffs — mean for Venezuela's economy and political landscape. The webinar will be held on 30 April via Zoom in English with live Spanish interpretation available.
The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) is set to unveil the 2025 Macroeconomic Report for Latin America and the Caribbean on 6 May. This report will look into the economic opportunities present and the importance of foreign direct investment for boosting productivity, diversifying industries, and promoting growth in the region. Guests can attend either online or in-person. The event will be in English, with Spanish and Portuguese interpretation available.
Thanks for taking the time to read The Week Ahead. If there's something you think we overlooked, or you'd simply like to share your thoughts, we'd love to hear from you. Feel free to reach out at press@southernpulse.com.
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