The Week Ahead: 31 March-06 April 2025
Welcome to Southern Pulse’s weekly newsletter, where we dive into the major events and headlines set to shake things up in Latin America this week. We’ll keep you updated on key topics we’re watching and events to keep an eye on. If you were forwarded this newsletter, you can subscribe here:
The Week Ahead
This week, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum is expected to respond to US President Donald Trump’s tariff measures. Colombia’s government will host a congress in Bogota seeking to reactivate peace talks with the National Liberation Army (ELN) insurgent group, and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil will hold a rally for his supporters. Peru and Guatemala will announce new measures to incentivize growth and protect local producers, respectively.
Research for this newsletter was supported by Nelson, our AI-powered Latin American research companion. If you'd like to know more about Nelson, click here.
Monday 31 March
Holidays: 🇸🇷 🇹🇹 The countries of Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago observe Eid al-Fitr to mark the end of Ramadan.
🇧🇴 Bolivian President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales will testify as witnesses in a case against opposition leader Luis Fernando Camacho. Camacho was accused of organizing a 2019 coup.
🇨🇴 Colombian unionized education workers will protest in various cities. The Colombian Federation of Education Workers said the mobilizations seek to put pressure on the government to meet demands including better labor conditions, health care, and public education.
🇨🇱 🇺🇳 The Chilean capital of Santiago will host the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Forum on Sustainable Development between 31 March and 4 April. Representatives from governments, civil society organizations, and academics will analyze the progress in fulfilling the UN’s 2030 Agenda commitments in the region.
🇵🇪 The Peruvian Economy and Finance Ministry will announce a new set of deregulation measures to incentivize economic growth, including decrees to reduce bureaucracy and increase financing opportunities. Private sector representatives evaluated over 100 proposals. Economy and Finance Minister José Salardi said he will announce further rounds of measures in April and July 2025.
Tuesday 1 April
🇬🇹 Guatemala will begin importing duty-free beans and corn until the end of 2025. The Economy Ministry (Mineco) authorized duty-free imports of 15,000 tons of black beans and 60,000 tons of white corn to help guarantee the public’s access to common food products and protect them from high prices due to a decline in local production.
🇨🇴 Members of Colombian opposition parties will announce their first actions as a new coalition ahead of the March 2026 presidential elections. Affiliates of the Liberal, Conservative, U, and New Liberalism (NL) parties will form the “Historic Pact” coalition to put forward candidates in the upcoming election. The first actions include discouraging participation in President Gustavo Petro’s upcoming popular consultation and lobbying against health and labor reforms under discussion in Congress.
Wednesday 2 April
Holidays: 🇦🇷 Argentina observes Malvinas Day, which honors fallen Argentine soldiers in the 1982 Falklands Islands (Malvinas) War between Argentina and the UK.
🇻🇪 🇺🇸 The Donald Trump administration plans to place a 25% tariff on all imports from countries buying oil or gas from Venezuela. The measure, announced by President Trump via Truth Social, could mostly affect China. Mexican news outlet NMas reported that China bought 68% of Venezuelan oil in 2023 — followed by enterprises in the US, Spain, Russia, Singapore, and Vietnam.
🇦🇷 World Bank President Ajay Banga will visit President Javier Milei in Buenos Aires after participating in an economic forum in Paraguay. Banja’s program also includes meetings with finance minister Luis Caputo aimed at ratifying the multilateral agenda that the World Bank has with the Office of the President. Amid negotiations for a new loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Milei’s meeting with Banga will allow him to explore further financing opportunities.
Thursday 3 April
🇲🇽 🇺🇸 Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will respond to two sets of US tariffs. Her expected “integral response” against US President Donald Trump’s tariffs will first focus on the 25% import taxes the US imposed on all Mexican and Canadian goods last March, which was delayed from entering into force until 2 April. The second is the 25% tariffs on all foreign steel and aluminum goods that Trump first announced in February and imposed this month. Sheinbaum’s economy and security secretaries have been engaged in various negotiations seeking to persuade the Trump administration to eliminate the tariffs.
Friday 4 April
💡 Have you had a chance to check out our recent Visual Pulse on GDP per capita in Latin America? From Guyana’s booming oil sector to Uruguay’s political stability and low-income inequality, the region is home to varying degrees of socioeconomic realities that must be considered when operating in Latin America.
Weekend
Saturday 5 April
🇨🇴 The Colombian government will host a congress in Bogota to reactivate peace talks with ELN representatives. The government called to organize a so-called “Peace Congress” to gather representatives of human rights groups, societal organizations, business representatives and others to discuss possible future actions to reactivate the talks. President Gustavo Petro suspended the peace talks last January due to attacks from the FARC dissident group Frente 33 in the Catatumbo region.
Sunday 6 April
🇧🇷 Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro will hold a rally in Sao Paulo to defend those involved in an attack in Brasilia against federal buildings in January 2023. In his X account, Bolsonaro called on supporters to occupy Paulista Avenue. The call comes amid judicial proceedings against Bolsonaro, who is being investigated for allegedly leading the planning for a coup in February 2022.
Keeping an Eye On
In this section, we highlight topics or people we will be monitoring during the week.
🇺🇸 🌎 Another week, another Trump tariff standoff?
US President Donald Trump has dubbed 2 April as “Liberation Day” in light of the diverse range of tariffs expected to enter into force. These include three, separate 25% tariffs on all car imports, countries buying Venezuelan oil, and imports from Mexico and Canada. And yet, one cannot help but feel a sense of déjà vu. Trump announced punitive tariffs on Canada and Mexico in February before postponing them to March, and yet again to this week. There is no certainty over whether this so-called “Liberation Day” will go ahead as planned, or if it will also be pushed back. However, whatever happens will hopefully shed some light on the Trump administration’s logic: If the tariffs go ahead, observers will know that Trump is serious about implementing his economically nationalist agenda. If they are pushed into the future, we may be able to conclude that tariffs are purely intended to gain leverage with trading partners — as many analysts have assumed. Whatever the outcome, we’ll be keeping an eye on whether we’re finally seeing a glimpse of clarity about the Trump administration’s economic policies.
🇭🇳 Deportations as dealmaking
By now, it is almost cliché to highlight how transactional US foreign policy is under President Trump. And yet, it offers a useful guide: International agreements under the new administration tend to involve an obvious exchange of favors. Nowhere is this more clear than in US deportation flights in Latin America. The US recently deported nearly 200 Venezuelans via Honduras, and has also sent hundreds to El Salvador. The benefits for the Salvadoran government are clear: In exchange for accepting the flights, President Bukele stands to make millions of dollars while also receiving MS-13 leaders imprisoned in the US. The transfer of these inmates was reportedly sensitive to Bukele’s government because they have inside information on Bukele’s arrangements with his country’s deadly gangs. Had they been judged in the US, they might have offered details on the relationship. Similarly, the Venezuelan regime of Nicolás Maduro was rewarded for its cooperation with the deportation flights by granting an extension to Chevron’s operations in the country. Royalties from the oil company have become a lifeline to the regime in recent years. However, one mystery remains: what did the Honduran government receive in exchange for acting as an intermediary between the US and Venezuela? According to the Honduran foreign minister, former president Manuel Zelaya (sitting President Xiomara Castro’s husband) acted as a liaison between US and Venezuelan officials. This is significant because Zelaya’s brother has been accused in a US court of colluding with drug traffickers in the past. What is the Honduran government receiving in exchange for its role in the deportation flights? We’ll be keeping an eye on any surprise announcements in US-Honduran relations in the coming weeks.
Upcoming Events
On 3 April, the Council of the Americas will host a webinar focused on how Mexican investments in the US are driving job creation and boosting economic growth. Top Mexican business leaders will discuss their current investments and the potential for growth under the current administration. Make sure to register in advance if you'd like to attend.
The 8th Latin America Energy Summit, organized by Industry Exchange, will take place in Santiago, Chile between 9-10 April. This in-person event aims to analyze the opportunities within the rapidly evolving energy sector in Latin America. Southern Pulse will be on site to introduce our new research assistant, Nelson. If you’re attending, we’d love to hear from you at nelson@southernpulse.com.
On 10 April, the Latin American and Caribbean Center at Florida International University (FIU) will explore the trend of Cuban doctors being dispatched abroad to generate funds for the regime. Two specialists will dive into the specifics and consequences of the expanding Cuban medical presence in Mexico. The event will be held in Spanish.
The Center for Strategic & International Studies' Project on Prosperity and Development is set to host the ninth annual Global Development Forum (GDF) on 23 April. This forum will gather experts and key players to explore future opportunities for US engagement with developing and emerging markets.
Thanks for taking the time to read The Week Ahead. If there's something you think we overlooked, or you'd simply like to share your thoughts, we'd love to hear from you. Feel free to reach out at press@southernpulse.com.
Editor’s note: The March 31 item on Bolivia was updated with a corrected year.
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