The Week Ahead: 5-11 May 2025
Welcome to Southern Pulse’s weekly newsletter, where we dive into the major events and headlines set to shake things up in Latin America this week. We’ll keep you updated on key topics we’re watching and events to keep an eye on. If you were forwarded this newsletter, you can subscribe here:
The Week Ahead
This week's most important events include local elections in Uruguay with special attention to the results in the capital Montevideo; the participation of three regional leaders in Russia’s Victory Day celebration in Moscow; and visits from both Brazilian President Lula da Silva and Chilean President Gabriel Boric to China in the coming days.
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Monday 5 May
Holidays: 🇬🇾 Guyana observes Arrival Day in celebration of Guyanese diverse heritage. | 🇲🇽The Mexican state of Puebla and a few Mexican communities in the US celebrate ‘Cinco de Mayo’.
🌎 The Organization of American States (OAS) will elect its Deputy Secretary General in Washington, D.C. Three candidates are set to compete for the position: Laura Gil from Colombia, Ana María Sánchez from Peru, and Claudia Escobar from Guatemala. Escobar's candidacy has split the regional support that initially favored Gil and, according to El Tiempo, is gaining ground thanks to the backing of the United States and its Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.
🇸🇻 El Salvador will host World Customs Organization’s (WCO) international events for the first time. The Salvadorian Director General of Customs, Benjamin Mayorga, said the three events will be attended by at least 33 customs directors from Latin America, the Caribbean, Spain, and Portugal.
Tuesday 6 May
🇭🇳 🇪🇺 The European Union and Honduras will host an infrastructure roadshow in Tegucigalpa. The promotional tour of EU company leaders aims to connect them to partners in Honduras and consolidate deals that foster sustainable development through public-private partnerships. Attendees will aim to agree on funding for the construction of four dams, as well as several projects related to expanding power coverage across Honduras.
🇦🇷 In Argentina, the Union of Public Transportation Workers (UTA) will hold a nationwide bus strike. The UTA demands better wages, after organizers said that negotiations with the sector’s management have failed. The measure is expected to affect urban and suburban short and medium distance services in Argentina’s main cities.
🇩🇴 🇪🇸 Spanish King Felipe VI will visit the Dominican Republic. His schedule includes audiences with various foundations such as the Reynolds Foundation and the University of the Caribbean (UNICARIBE).
Wednesday 7 May
🇧🇷 Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s followers will hold “a peaceful demonstration” in Brasília to demand amnesty for those convicted after the coup attempt of January 2023. Bolsonaro called for the protest shortly after being released from hospital, where he had been operated due to complications from a stabbing wound received in 2018. This is the latest in a series of Bolsonarista rallies held since the beginning of 2025 in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo.
Thursday 8 May
🇲🇽 In Mexico, bank leaders, regulators and government officials will gather at the 88th Banking Convention to discuss national financial issues. President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed her assistance and indicated her main ask to bankers will be to lower interest rates. She is also poised to announce a new partnership with private banks so that more micro, small and medium-sized businesses (MSMEs) have access to financing.
🇧🇷 🇻🇪 🇨🇺 🇷🇺 Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, and Cuba’s Miguel Díaz-Canel will attend the Russia’s Victory Day celebrations in Moscow. The presidents confirmed their attendance to the commemorations held on the 80th anniversary of Victory Day, the day on which Russians celebrate the Soviet victory against Nazi Germany in World War II. President Lula da Silva’s visit is part of a wider schedule to visit countries in Asia, including China — ahead of the CELAC-China meeting later in the month.
Friday 9 May
🇨🇱 🇯🇵 🇨🇳 Chilean President Gabriel Boric will visit Japan and China in an effort to diversify Chilean trade relations in Asia. President Boric is scheduled to visit Japan and China for a working trip until 15 May. The tour takes place against the backdrop of US President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, which have prompted Latin American leaders to look for new markets. Boric’s visit follows an invitation by Brazilian President Lula da Silva to jointly meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. This is the third official visit that Boric will conduct to Asia.
Weekend
Saturday 10 May
💡 Nothing pressing for today. Did you know local elections are set to happen this week in Uruguay? Check out this Visual Pulse from the Southern Pulse archive to see what elections are taking place this year across the region.
Sunday 11 May
🇺🇾 Uruguayans will go to the polls to vote in local elections. The departmental and municipal elections will allow Uruguayans to elect those who will lead local governments for the next five years, including mayors, members of departmental boards, and municipal councillors. There is particular interest in the capital Montevideo race given the recent emergence of the center-right Republican Coalition party, which will run against the historically favorite and left-leaning Frente Amplio.
Keeping an Eye On
In this section, we highlight topics or people we will be monitoring during the week.
🌎 🇨🇳 🇪🇺 Latin America looks East to diversify away from the US?
A month after US President Donald Trump shocked world markets with sweeping tariffs, Latin American governments are making their first moves to diversify their exports away from the US. Gabriel Boric's trip to Japan and China, alongside Lula da Silva's Asian tour – notably starting in Russia – highlight the new markets being prioritized by the Chilean and Brazilian presidents. Asia appears to be the clear beneficiary of Latin America’s pivot. Latin America mainly exports commodities, which Asian countries use either as inputs in their industry or as cheap foodstuffs. With tariffs reducing Latin American products’ ability to compete in the US market, Asian counterparts seem like a logical replacement. Perhaps the biggest loser in this pivot is – for now – the European Union. With tight regulations on commodities and foodstuffs – as well as protectionist measures to shield European farmers from lower prices – the EU is unlikely to see a spike in trade with Latin America. At a time when the European bloc is seeking to project greater world influence, they don’t appear to bring much value to Latin American producers. This could change, however, should the two markets become intertwined by the Mercosur-EU free trade agreement. This deal would begin to open up Europe to South American commodities, establishing a solid commercial footing between both continents. However, negotiations are painfully slow, and facing potentially insurmountable hurdles. We will be keeping an eye on how Latin America increasingly looks East – instead of West – to diversify away from the US.
🌎 Does it pay off to be a Trump ally in Latin America?
As the Financial Times reported last week, it may pay off for Latin American leaders to become staunch Trump supporters. Argentina’s Javier Milei and El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele have both recently received key lifelines in the shape of IMF loans – an institution of which the US is the main shareholder. Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa visited Trump in his Mar-a-Lago resort weeks before a tight election which he ended up winning; political scientists and historians will debate in the future whether the visit had any impact on the outcome. For now, it appears that aligning closely with the US president brings immediate benefits. However, it is by now almost a cliché to highlight Trump’s transactional outlook; favors are seldom given without expectation of return. Trump’s foreign policy has attracted parallels to the Mafia, a comparison that resonates with his relationship to the aforementioned leaders: it usually begins with a favor, but it’s not too late before ‘the Don’ calls to collect. Will that moment come for Milei, Bukele and Noboa? And if – or when – it does, what shape will it take? We will be keeping an eye on what the US administration demands in return for its favors.
Upcoming Events
The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) is set to unveil the 2025 Macroeconomic Report for Latin America and the Caribbean on 6 May. This report will look into the economic opportunities present and the importance of foreign direct investment for boosting productivity, diversifying industries, and promoting growth in the region. Guests can attend either online or in-person. The event will be in English, with Spanish and Portuguese interpretation available.
On 8 May, an online event titled “The Rise of a Fragmented and Contested World” will be hosted by the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI). The session will explore current dynamics affecting international security and will conclude with a Q&A session for the audience. Participants are required to register ahead of time.
The Inter-American Dialogue is organizing an in-person event in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on 13 May to explore how instability of the rule of law impacts the private sector and what companies can do to address this issue. The event will be conducted in Spanish and attendees must RSVP.
Thanks for taking the time to read The Week Ahead. If there's something you think we overlooked, or you'd simply like to share your thoughts, we'd love to hear from you. Feel free to reach out at press@southernpulse.com.
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