The Week Ahead: 16-22 September 2024
Welcome to Southern Pulse’s weekly newsletter, where we dive into the major events and headlines that are set to shake things up in Latin America this week. We’ll keep you updated on key topics we’re watching and events to keep an eye on.
Weekend Catch-Up
🇦🇷 Argentinian President Javier Milei presented his government’s budget for 2025 to Congress on the evening of 15 September. He promised extensive budget cuts with the goal of eliminating Argentina’s perennial budget deficit by 2025.
The Week Ahead
This week’s agenda includes the visit of Italian anti-mafia police to Costa Rica, who will participate in events focused on organized crime and security challenges; Brazil’s Central Bank is set to announce new interest rates; and Colombia’s largest trade union federation will stage marches across the country supporting President Gustavo Petro.
Monday 16 September
National Holidays: 🇲🇽 Independence Day in Mexico
🇵🇾 A delegation from the Inter-American Human Rights Court (IAHRC) will visit Paraguay to ensure compliance with a 2010 ruling protecting local indigenous groups from deforestation. The IAHRC ordered that the Paraguayan government return nearly 3,000 hectares of land to indigenous communities in the Gran Chaco region, which became victims of illegal logging and mass deforestation. This ruling would become an important precedent in the fight against deforestation in the region — if the IAHRC proves it can effectively enforce it.
🇨🇷🇮🇹 A delegation of Italian anti-mafia police will visit Costa Rica to participate in several events focused on organized crime and security challenges. The country has been experiencing increasing crime rates in recent years, with a growing presence of transnational criminal groups. Some of these even hail from Italy, such as the ‘Ndrangheta.
Tuesday 17 September
Nothing pressing scheduled for today. Why not take the time to read Southern Pulse’s latest article on judicial reform in Mexico?
Wednesday 18 September
National Holidays: 🇨🇱 Independence Day in Chile
🇺🇸 The US Federal Reserve is expected to announce a cut in interest rates by 25 basis points, CBS reported. Lower rates might ease pressures on Latin American governments and companies holding USD-denominated debt, and spur an uptick in foreign investment.
🇧🇷 Brazil’s central bank is expected to announce new interest rates. According to Reuters, the likelihood of a hike has increased after economic growth was stronger than expected in Q2 2024. The current interest rate stands at 10.5%, and inflation remains at 4.35% — above the country’s 3% target. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva recently chose an ally to preside over the central bank in January 2025, although the Senate has yet to vote on the appointment.
Thursday 19 September
National Holidays: 🇨🇱 Independence Day in Chile (continued)
🇦🇷🇮🇱 Amir Ohana, president of Israel’s legislative chamber (Knesset) will visit Argentina’s Congress at the invitation of the latter country’s Friendship with Israel Parliamentary Group. The group comprises bipartisan legislators from the Peronist Unión por la Patria party and the center-right Propuesta Republicana (PRO) party. President Milei has been a staunch supporter of his Israeli counterpart, Benjamin Netanyahu, even as Israel’s war with Hamas has raised controversy worldwide.
🇨🇴 Colombia’s largest trade union federation, the Central Unitaria de Trabajadores (CUT), will stage nationwide marches supporting President Gustavo Petro. Both Petro and the CUT argued that there has been a “soft coup” underway against the government since the country’s electoral commission opened an investigation into alleged funding irregularities in Petro’s 2022 presidential campaign.
Friday 20 September
Check Southern Pulse’s Substack for our latest article. This week, we’re featuring an interview with Southern Pulse’s Managing Director for South America Pablo Zeballos about his new book.
Weekend
Saturday 21 September
🇨🇴 In Colombia, local and national authorities plan to meet with leaders from the armed FARC dissident group Segunda Marquetalia, along with community members from the Nariño department where the group operates. Negotiations between both parties have been dragging, and it is uncertain whether these new talks will help advance President Gustavo Petro’s goal of achieving “Total Peace” with all armed groups in the country.
Sunday 22 September
🇺🇳🇨🇱 Chilean President Gabriel Boric will travel to New York City to attend the UN’s Summit of the Future on 22 and 23 September. The event aims to draft a common vision for UN policy in the areas of “sustainable development and financing, peace and security, a digital future for all, youth and future generations, and global governance.” The summit precedes a UN General Assembly meeting on 24 September.
🇲🇽 Mexico’s ruling MORENA party will elect its new leadership. According to local media reports, the favorite to be elected party president is Luisa María Alcalde, interior minister under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018-2024). López Obrador’s son, Andrés Manuel López Beltrán, is reported to be the frontrunner to become MORENA’s party secretary general. It remains to be seen whether this appointment is a way for the outgoing president to retain influence over the party he co-founded.
Keeping an Eye On
🇪🇨 Ecuador’s electricity crisis and the warnings it holds for Latin America
On 7 September, at least 14 provinces in Ecuador completely lost power in an outage that lasted several hours and brought the country to a standstill. Ecuador’s dire electricity shortage is a crisis that has been slowly brewing for years and has come to a head in 2024. The country has experienced at least three nationwide blackouts this year alone. Droughts have hit the country particularly hard, as 92% of its electricity is generated via hydroelectric power. The government of President Daniel Noboa has responded somewhat erratically, appointing three energy ministers in a year and accusing one of sabotage. To tackle the shortages, the government recently announced it would rent a floating electric generator from Turkey and disclosed a plan to refurbish its dilapidated thermal power plants. Much of Latin America similarly depends on water to power their grids. This has led Ecuador, Peru and Colombia to design an “electricity exchange” to trade electricity in an effort to approach the issue multilaterally. This exchange, however, will not become active until 2026. As droughts become more frequent with climate change, we’ll be keeping an eye on how well Ecuador navigates a challenge set to become increasingly prevalent in the region.
🇭🇳 Is the Honduran government charting an authoritarian course?
On 28 August, Honduran President Xiomara Castro rescinded the country’s extradition treaty with the US. Many analysts saw the move as a blow to law enforcement in the region. Perhaps more worryingly, InSight Crime published a video of Castro’s brother-in-law negotiating bribes with criminal groups a few days later. Castro is the wife of former president Manuel Zelaya, who was ousted in a 2009 coup. She was elected in 2021 after promising to undo decades of corruption, violence and impunity. The government has underdelivered on these promises so far and is increasingly entangling itself in a web of corruption scandals. With elections due in November 2025, we’ll be keeping an eye on the Honduran government’s increasingly autocratic path. We will watch whether it will compete in a clean election or adopt the tactics of its Nicaraguan and Venezuelan neighbors — rigging votes and interfering with the separation of powers.
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